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SeismoTotal · USGS

How it works

01

Live map

Your browser loads USGS GeoJSON feeds and refreshes the map every five minutes. Open an event to check its time, depth and magnitude in the original record: the catalogue can be revised later.

02

Historical catalogue

The interval includes both complete UTC dates. The total is queried separately; the chart and highlighted events use at most the 2,000 most recent events. A capped chart does not describe the entire period's monthly trend.

03

Statistical model

The observed rate is λ=N/H: recorded events divided by observation years. P(≥1)=1−exp(−λT) assumes a constant rate and independent events. Historical blocks do not share boundary instants.

04

Interpretation limits

Aftershocks and detection changes can violate these assumptions. Radius measures distance to the epicentre, not shaking intensity at your location. Sample size does not measure accuracy or validate the model. Use official sources for hazard, construction and emergencies.

Saved USGS counts

2001-09-24 → 2026-09-23 UTC · M ≥ 4.5 · H = 25 · λ = N/H

Saved USGS counts
SourceRadiusEventsλModel probability · T=1Model probability · T=10
Córdoba37.8846, -4.7794100 km00.00——
Tokyo35.6762, 139.6503100 km51720.68>99.9 %>99.9 %
Tokyo35.6762, 139.650350 km1867.44>99.9 %>99.9 %
Quito-0.1807, -78.4678100 km331.3273.29 %>99.9 %
Download data and queries · JSON

The table calculates 1- and 10-year horizons with the application's own engine. Values above 99.9% remain conditional model outputs, not certainties. Separate teaching example: N=2, H=25, T=10 gives λ=0.08 and P=55.07%. Live catalogue counts may change after revisions.