SeismoTotal · USGS
Reproducible examples
Saved USGS counts
These USGS responses were saved on 2026-09-24. They cover 25 complete years, 2001-09-24 through 2026-09-23 UTC, with M4.5+ and event type earthquake. The download includes coordinates and each reproducible query.
Radius
Tokyo changes from 517 events within 100 km to 186 within 50 km, keeping centre, magnitude and period fixed. Quito returns 33; Córdoba, zero. No records does not mean no risk: the tool does not display a point probability for a zero-event sample.
Model probability
The table calculates 1- and 10-year horizons with the application's own engine. Values above 99.9% remain conditional model outputs, not certainties. Separate teaching example: N=2, H=25, T=10 gives λ=0.08 and P=55.07%. Live catalogue counts may change after revisions.
Saved USGS counts
2001-09-24 → 2026-09-23 UTC · M ≥ 4.5 · H = 25 · λ = N/H
| Source | Radius | Events | λ | Model probability · T=1 | Model probability · T=10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Córdoba37.8846, -4.7794 | 100 km | 0 | 0.00 | — | — |
| Tokyo35.6762, 139.6503 | 100 km | 517 | 20.68 | >99.9 % | >99.9 % |
| Tokyo35.6762, 139.6503 | 50 km | 186 | 7.44 | >99.9 % | >99.9 % |
| Quito-0.1807, -78.4678 | 100 km | 33 | 1.32 | 73.29 % | >99.9 % |